Daily Pulse
One of our most accessible tools, this daily comment keeps you abreast of developments on the North American and international financial markets.
Michel Doucet
Vice-President and
Portfolio Manager
July 26, 2024
Canada
The Bank of Canada raised its population growth forecasts Wednesday, saying the government will probably need more time to limit non-permanent resident inflows. It predicts the number of people over 15 in Canada will rise by 3.3% this year, up from about 3% previously. The pace — among the fastest in the world —is boosting output and likely kept the country from falling into an outright recession. The bank’s latest estimates in its July monetary policy report show population growth decelerating at a slower pace than it had previously expected, reaching 1.7% in both 2025 and 2026, more than half a percentage point higher than in its April report.
United States
The Federal Reserve is likely to signal next week its plans to cut interest rates in September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a move they say will kick off reductions each quarter through 2025. Nearly three-quarters of respondents say the US central bank will use the July 30-31 gathering to set the stage for a quarter-point cut at the following meeting in September.
Barack and Michelle Obama endorsed Kamala Harris’ bid to become the Democratic nominee, offering their support to follow in his footsteps as only the second Black president in US history. A video released Friday shows the couple calling Harris to encourage her campaign — a symbolic passing of the torch from Obama, one of the youngest ever elected to the White House, to Harris.
The rally in the biggest US technology stocks is at risk of fading further if the US economy continues to cool, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. The strategist — who is bullish on bonds for the second half of 2024 — has said signs of an economic slowdown would fuel a rotation into stocks that have lagged behind the pricey tech mega-caps this year.
Europe
Trains to and from Paris, including the international Eurostar service, were hit by what authorities called a “massive attack aimed at paralyzing the network” of France’s super-fast trains just hours ahead of the inauguration ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games.
Asia
China’s benchmark government bond yield fell to a record low, testing policymakers’ resolve to stem the move. The yield on the 10-year sovereign note fell to 2.17% on Friday, below the 2.18% hit on July 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2002. Recent interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China to boost a flailing economy have undermined its efforts to guide longer-dated bond yields higher. Pessimism is growing toward the world’s second-largest economy, putting pressure on yields as traders seek havens and expectations grow of further rate cuts to come.